Coronavirus Overreaction?
In the UK, we have just had our schools shut down (to be repurposed as "babysitting" facilities for key works, looked-after children and those with EHCPs [Educational Health Care Plans]). In other words, without being too far from a lockdown, things have just got serious. As they have throughout the world.
Part of me wonders whether this is, to some degree, in response to the media. The media, some might say, have been fear-mongering. I disagree; it's too calculated. My opinion is that the media have been completely over-excited. This is an absolute dream for journalists. This is what they live for - serious 24/7 rolling news about a global catastrophe.
The question is whether they are overreacting. Is the reaction we are showing in proportion to the risk?
Part of me thinks there is a genuine overreaction and part of me fully trusts the scientists advising (hoping that governments are genuinely and in good faith following the advice).
The next question I have been asking is this:
If the regular flu was discovered right now as a new virus, with its associated risks, contagiousness and mortality rates, would we react to the regular flu in the same way that we are now reacting to the coronavirus?
There are a few caveats: we already do spend at least some money on tackling the flu. I believe there were some 1 billion flue injections last year. We have no vaccine for Covid-19.
It seems to me that the novelty of Covid-19 partly underwrites the present catastrophic thinking.
There have been claims that we should be putting in just as much collective thought and effort into tackling climate change because it has arguably even more far-reaching effects, it's only that it doesn't seem so temporally and geographically proximate (to the main power-brokers of the world). This could be comparing apples and bricks, though.
One friend did reply to my musings with: "It's about immunity as well! If influenza A/B/C hit the world today as a novel virus it would be bad, but probably not as bad!"
In other words, there has been, over time, some deal of immunity built up to it throughout the world in a way not the same with coronavirus, and if the regular flu hit now, it could be just as bad - think the Spanish Flu. Regular flu has been around for at least a few hundred years, more likely a few thousand, and so natural immunity is an important aspect. Covid-19 is brand new. This is why so much effort is being put into developing a herd immunity:
To put that in perspective: In 2017 to 2018, the worst flu season on record in the U.S. outside of a pandemic, approximately 80,000 Americans died. The four other coronavirus strains that already exist are responsible for around 25% of our common colds, Adalja added.
“But it doesn’t seem like there is cross-immunity with this coronavirus as there are with the other coronaviruses,” he added. In other words, the natural defense systems in our body that help us ward off flu are unlikely to apply here.
Luis Ostrosky, a member of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, said humans have a “herd immunity” to flu. “When there are enough people in the community who are immune, it protects people who are not immune,” he said. That is the case with flu, but not with COVID-19. Ostrosky said this is especially critical when there are no vaccines or therapeutic treatments for a virus.
Fatality rates range from anywhere from <1% up to 3.4%, though a recent study puts it at 2.3%.
The claim of overreaction could be because we are looking at the cycle at an early stage (this interactive infographic is worth checking out), a screengrab of which you can see here:
Because the numbers are in the exponential stage for many countries, we are panicking; but with the correct (i.e., present and therefore not overreacting) steps, we can flatten change the trajectories to be more like Singapore.
Another useful one:
I guess I am saying that I don't know if we are overreacting and perhaps we will never know because, though we can speculate, it's hard to know what would happen for sure if we didn't react at present levels.
I would be really interested in your thoughts and stats and input, dear readers here, because you are so very knowledgeable on a whole range of issues that I'm sure you'll put me straight. Probably in both directions. So I'll end up being as bent as a nine-bob note. Or very, very stretched.
What I am sure of is Trump calling it repeatedly "The Chinese Virus" (not even Chinese Coronavirus anymore) and defending a White House staffer's use of the term "Kung-Flu" as not being racist really doesn't help. EDIT: I asked this question to BBC 5Live today:
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