The Pope, Catholicism and Trump, and other US Political News
Trump's Covid
Trump has just returned from hospital, seemingly fairly well. I don't go in for conspiracy theories, but these things always persist when there is a lack of transparency and clarity, which there clearly is on a number of things:
- When did Trump last test negative?
- What's going on with his lungs and CT scans?
- No, Conley, you don't normally send patients home with drug regimens like that.
- How much are the steroids covering up Trump's ailments?
- Why did Trump do that fundraiser when he did?
And so on.
That said, we certainly don't want a lingering "poor me" Trump that garners the sympathy vote and stops him from repeatedly putting his foot in his mouth by appearing in public. And, as a fellow human, I don't wish him unnecessary pain; but that's as far as my sympathy goes. After all, he's a horrible human being lacking any compassion for anyone else; what goes around, comes around.
The Pope
The Pope doesn't like Trump (reports about his lack of joy at Trump's Vatican visit still surface). He's previously called out his pro-life hypocrisy, something that Trumpists care to ignore. Indeed, he claims Trump is not Christian:
And what have you. You can't blame him - Trump appears to be as un-Christian a leader as you can get, and a moral reprobate to boot. The mental contortions that Tump-supporting Christians have to engage in to maintain their support given their supposed faith beggars belief.
The Pope is making interesting claims as of late, in his encyclical letter, such as capitalism failing in the pandemic, and particularly concerning refugees and immigration:
We are not accustomed to a hearing from a pope, a month before Election Day, who criticizes “myopic, extremist, resentful and aggressive nationalism,” and castigates those who, through their actions, cast immigrants as “less worthy, less important, less human.”
Nor is it in our political playbook that a pope would call out an “every man for himself” worldview that “will rapidly degenerate into a free-for-all that would prove worse than any pandemic.”
Or say this: “The marketplace, by itself, cannot resolve every problem, however much we are asked to believe this dogma of neoliberal faith. Whatever the challenge, this impoverished and repetitive school of thought always offers the same recipes … the magic theories of ‘spillover’ or ‘trickle’ — without using the name.”...
And lest anyone see his pronouncements as those of a “leftist” pope, he went out of his way to link his views on social justice and his opposition to the death penalty to those of Benedict XVI and John Paul II, his predecessors who are seen as more conservative figures.
Nonetheless, it will be hard for Americans, Catholic and otherwise, to read Francis outside the context of a presidential campaign in its decisive phase. The themes of his encyclical — a form of papal communication more formally authoritative than a sermon or a speech — will make it much harder for conservative and right-wing Catholics to insist that the only orthodox vote is for Trump.
Francis’s emphasis throughout was on denunciations of “empty individualism,” a “narrow and violent nationalism, xenophobia and contempt, and even the mistreatment of those who are different,” and “a cool, comfortable and globalized indifference.”
“Anyone who thinks that the only lesson to be learned was the need to improve what we were already doing, or to refine existing systems and regulations, is denying reality,” he wrote. “God willing, after all this, we will think no longer in terms of ‘them’ and ‘those’, but only ‘us’. … If only we might keep in mind all those elderly persons who died for lack of respirators, partly as a result of the dismantling, year after year, of healthcare systems."
The document read as if Francis had been an attentive viewer of Tuesday’s nasty, chaotic and petty debate. Again, it was hard not to think of the president as Francis described “a strategy of ridicule, suspicion and relentless criticism.”
“Political life no longer has to do with healthy debates about long-term plans to improve people’s lives and to advance the common good, but only with slick marketing techniques primarily aimed at discrediting others,” he wrote. “In this craven exchange of charges and counter-charges, debate degenerates into a permanent state of disagreement and confrontation.”
With Joe Biden being Catholic, and long showing evidence of, you know, actually having some faith, you can't help but think that (aside from abortion), the Democrats and Biden (with how his faith shapes his politics) offer the Pope a better option for his vision of the future than the rampantly individualistic Republicans who care only for themselves and people very similar to themselves.
It's funny when you speak to certain Catholics (no names mentioned...) who seem so wildly divorced from Catholicism, and so embracing of evangelicalism, that you wonder how they remain calling themselves Catholics. That said, I worked in Catholic education for ten years (the things I could tell you...) and could see it, and still can, moving ever so consistently towards a more overt, right-wing conservatism of an evangelical nature. But that's another discussion.
Polls
Despite what less astute people might tell you, the 2016 polls did not get it wrong, or certainly to the degree people like to claim. They accurately predicted the national vote, and got perhaps 4 states a bit wrong, with one state being the major problem. Most inaccuracies were within the margin of error; you've just gotta know how to read and use polls.
And this time round, the pollsters have worked hard to address the issues (e.g., of weighting towards college-educated voters) that happened in 2016.
2016 had more undecided and independent voters than now. There are no viable third-party candidates, and people decided early who they would vote for and appear to be sticking to it. indeed, these are the most consistent polls ever, I believe. I think the latest NBC/WSJ poll the other day that gave Biden a 14-point lead is an outlier.
That said, with the consistent 7-8-point lead that Biden otherwise have, there could be something of a landslide if Trump can keep his meddling hands away from the ballot boxes and mail-in ballots. It all depends on certain states. Arizona is looking good for Biden, let's hope that Cal Cunningham's lead is big enough to cope with the latest scandal, Ohio is looking tasty, Georgia is up for grabs, the Rust Belt looks safely Biden, texas is turning very purple, Maine and Nebraska's voting district look to turn blue, and so on. Obviously, things can be different depending on whether you are looking at the presidential polls of the down-ballot battles.
Polls suggest that the Republicans are due to lose the Senate as well as the Presidency.
Texas is fascinating. The tide has been turning for some time, and it really manifested itself in Beto O'Rourke's stunning campaign. Yes, he lost but the swing was impressive. But it was the groundwork that continues to take place where differences are being made. See this fascinating interview with one of my favourite pollsters:
Biden can win without Texas without any problem but Trump absolutely needs Texas - it's a core red state, right?. Without it, all those electoral college votes will need to be replaced elsewhere, and it will be indicative of losses elsewhere. It's not just Texas: Trump desperately needs Florida, too. The problem is, we are seeing a huge swing in over-50 men and seniors in Florida moving to Biden in unprecedented figures. Seniors are voting +27% for Biden in Florida as according to the latest A-rated polls. Let that sink in.
100 times more mail-in ballots are being sent in, in a like for like timeframe, than in 2016. 100 times.
100 times.
And word on the street is that these, and absentee ballots, are skewing very heavily Democrat.
So it is hardly surprising that the GOP reaction to this is to cheat. Texas is facing lawsuits aplenty: "Texas governor shuts down drop-off sites for early mail votes".
The polls are unequivocal: Biden will win this election.
The only way this won't happen is by cheating and by challenging the result in court, both of which are and will be happening. Trump is gearing up the legal machines both across the states individually and also in the Supreme Court. The GOP is involved in manifest voter suppression. The democratic values and mechanisms are being dismantled before the voters' eyes.
Although I have said that this A-rated pollster poll is an outlier, there is something to be said for the swing in these traditionally right-voting age blocs:
That +27% (62% vs 35%) NBC/WSJ poll for seniors in Florida might be an outlier, but, ceteris paribus, if you changed the seniors nationally from R+15 as it was in 2016 (R=Republicans) to R+10 (so a 5% shift, as opposed to the huge one suggested in the NBC/WSJ poll), then Florida flips blue.
Biden is sitting at his highest polling point in the whole election cycle and Trump is at his lowest.
It is not surprising that the GOP is very worried.
I am still amazed that some right-wing friends of mine still cherry-pick the odd Rasmussen poll that might paint something positively for Trump and declare to me, "Trump will romp in". Sorry, but go do some research. Go learn how to read polls. But then, as Telegraph-reading Brits, what do you expect: "Forget the polls – as long as Trump keeps tweeting, there's life in his presidency". Policy appears to count for nought (Trump has no policy proposals). It's all about what he Tweets.
And in other news... Lindsey Graham gets trounced
Lindsey Graham got trounced in a very one-sided debate against Democrat Jaime Harrison the other night. My favourite point of the debate is here, time-stamped for you: https://youtu.be/A9D_RLWyxZU?t=3045
I would also advise seeing Harrison batter him over his SCOTUS hypocrisy.
Let's hope South Carolina flips in the Senate (B-rated pollsters have them neck and neck).
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